CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-16T23:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32016/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This was determined to likely be separate from CME: 2024-07-16T23:12Z. There were multiple source candidates for this CME, including the M1.9 flare and eruption from AR 3744 or an eruption with moving/opening field lines from AR 3751 around 2024-07-16T20:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-19T22:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: -4126.93 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy